Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
